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Research Report 554 Travel time predictability

Published: | Category: Research & reports , Research programme , Performance monitoring , Activity management , Natural hazard risk management , Safety, security and public health , Environmental impacts of land transport , Transport demand management , Integrated land use and transport systems , Sustainable land transport , About the research programme , Economic development | Audience: General

Reliable journey time is a key parameter in travellers' route choice and has important applications in transport planning and modelling. For transport users, it affects their choice of mode, journey route and also their activity patterns. For transport planners and policy makers, journey time estimates are used to provide key indicators for performance monitoring, congestion management, travel demand modelling and forecasting, traffic simulation, air quality analysis, evaluation of travel demand and traffic operations strategies.

This research aimed to clarify how historical baseline data combined with near real-time data including environmental conditions, incidents and traffic flow could contribute to the calculation of reliable and timely delivered travel time predictions.

A comprehensive literature review was undertaken to establish existing methods for predicting travel time. Based on the findings of the literature review, and using sample data from Auckland's strategic road network, a model was developed to determine if these methods could be applied to strategic roads throughout New Zealand.

Publication details

  • Author:
  • Published: August 2014
  • ISBN/ISSN: 978-0-478-41966-5