Recent government legislation and policy promotes an increase in walking and cycling as an alternative to the increasing demand for motor vehicle travel. Concern exists, however, that an increase in these modes, particularly cycling, could lead to a substantial increase in pedestrian and cyclist fatalities and injuries.
In this research, carried out between 2002 and 2004, accident rates for cyclists and pedestrians were investigated and interviews carried out with casualties. A high under-reporting rate was observed. Using traffic, cyclist and pedestrian counts and reported accidents between the ‘active modes’ and motor vehicles, accident prediction models (APMs) were developed.
These include models for various accident types at signalised crossroads, roundabouts and mid-block locations. These models were used to calculate the likely change in motor vehicle, pedestrian and cycle accidents and also accident rate per road user for a change in mode, particularly motor vehicle trips to pedestrian and cycle trips. It was found that a noticeable ‘safety in numbers’ effect exists.
Generally, the overall increase in cycle and pedestrian accidents was not substantial and the crash rate per cyclist and pedestrian reduced with increases in their numbers.
Keywords: accident prediction models, crash, cyclists, modelling, pedestrians, prediction, reporting rates, roads