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Research Report 650 Understanding current and forecast visitor flows to the South Island

Published: | Category: Economic development , Research programme , Research & reports | Audience: General

Data is required for destination management, both of current visitor activity and future activity. This report reviews the data that currently exists for visits to the South Island of New Zealand, where tourism growth has been, and is still expected to be, strong. Not surprisingly no one dataset was found that could reasonably describe visitor activity, nor were there forecasts for core visitor activities across each region of the South Island. Methods were tested to show how currently available data, including an International Visitor Survey and a measure of electronic card spending, could be adjusted to derive measures of visitor presence.

A three-part visitor flows model was presented that could be used to derive estimates of visitor flows between and within regions. Rather than attempting to derive a regional visitor forecast, it was recommended systems be refined to ascertain current constraints and monitor planning by public and private sector stakeholders.

A major area identified for ongoing research is the interaction between visitor and local resident dissatisfaction and infrastructure requirements.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, destination management, road infrastructure, South Island New Zealand, tourism, tourism flows model, visitor attractions

Publication details

  • Author:
  • Published: October 2018
  • Reference: 650
  • ISBN/ISSN: 978-1-98-856117-2