The National Resilience Programme Business Case is a foundation product of He Anamata Manawaroa – the Waka Kotahi Resilience Programme.

In mid-May 2020, the Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency Board endorsed the National Resilience Programme Business Case. It identifies and rates nationally important risks from natural hazards (including climate change-related) in the New Zealand land transport system and addresses a range of system-wide resilience process issues.

Responses to the highest priority risks and sites will be submitted for consideration into the National Land Transport Programme (NLTP). The associated evidence base, risk prioritisation methodology and decision-making framework is now available.

The National Resilience Programme Business Case (PBC) includes an evidence-base for future planning and investment decisions. It provides a national picture of vulnerability and exposure of New Zealand’s highway network to natural hazards. The PBC does not replace or remove the need for localised place-based business cases.

From a national importance and impact perspective, this evidence base is the first time Waka Kotahi can confidently express a nationally consistent, objective and representative view of resilience risks.

Using the evidence base, it will be important to consider related or associated risks on a regional, corridor or journey basis.

Risks to the land transport system

A key output of the Programme Business Case (PBC) is a Portfolio Risk Assessment. It results in a database identifying and rating risks to the land transport system. 

Each risk is rated as Extreme, Major, Moderate or Minor. You can view the 380 total risks – including 40 Extreme and 143 Major risks in map form on ArcGIS:

National Resilience Programme Business Case 2020(external link)


Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency commissioned the development of a National Resilience Programme Business Case following on from the work commenced by the National Resilience Strategic Case (2019). This case is the latest in a series of studies and cases that seek to improve how Waka Kotahi embeds resilience into its business and investment planning.  Read the overview here:

Executive summary [PDF, 243 KB]

Natural hazard risk sites

This Regional Risk Assessment Summary Report provides a summary of the sites rated as extreme and major risks.  It then goes on to detail natural hazard risk sites assessed in each region and rates them on a four-step grading from Extreme to Minor.

Appendix F of the National Resilience Programme Business Case [PDF, 1.3 MB]

Regional major and extreme risk location maps

Regional maps – Natural hazards risk rating [LARGE FILE] [PDF, 20 MB]

Risk prioritisation methodology and decision-making approach

This report details the process and methodology of a Portfolio Risk Assessment (PRA) completed across New Zealand’s land transport system to identify and rate natural hazard risks.

Appendix G of the National Resilience Programme Business Case [PDF, 296 KB]

Background to the National Resilience PBC

This business case was commissioned to:

  • Provide an evidence base of the nationally extreme and major risks posed to the New Zealand land transport system from a natural hazards perspective
  • Deliver an associated agreed, preferred and integrated suite of system-wide responses that Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency and its co-investment partners could implement to address the identified risks and best achieve the benefits and outcomes defined by this case. These responses represent the high-level strategic interventions (especially focused on the NLTP) or initiatives across Waka Kotahi to address the resilience risks, issues, deficiencies and opportunities in or affecting the land transport system, including those geographical sites identified in the evidence base
  • Reflect the significance of resilience issues affecting the land transport system and associated infrastructure.

This case also identifies potential actions for the Waka Kotahi Business Plan and for Regional Land Transport Plans.

National Resilience Programme Business Case [PDF, 21 MB]

What happens now?

Our resilience team is helping to support work across Waka Kotahi to apply the national evidence base into decision-making. The evidence base can be used to reduce risk and improve resilience of the land transport system.

The rating of natural hazard risks in the land transport system identified 40 extreme risks. Of these, 20 risk sites have been grouped to 13 new Business Cases to be proposed for inclusion in the NLTP.

Why are there only state highway locations and risks identified?

The focus was on national level risks/impacts and these are found predominantly on state highways. There are a small number of local roads in the database, but did not get rated in the extreme risk category.

Why are locational risks emphasised?

A key purpose of the PBC was to provide a database to inform and support an enhanced capital works programme for the NLTP.

Webinar presentation

Lead Advisor Resilience Stuart Woods presented a webinar through Engineering NZ in July 2020. Check out the questions and answers from around the 40-minute mark in the video below.

National Land Transport Resilience Programme

Contact us

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